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Article
Publication date: 18 May 2020

Ghulam Abbas and Shouyang Wang

The study aims to analyze the interaction between macroeconomic uncertainty and stock market return and volatility for China and USA and tries to draw some invaluable inferences…

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Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to analyze the interaction between macroeconomic uncertainty and stock market return and volatility for China and USA and tries to draw some invaluable inferences for the investors, portfolio managers and policy analysts.

Design/methodology/approach

Empirically the study uses GARCH family models to capture the time-varying volatility of stock market and macroeconomic risk factors by using monthly data ranging from 1995:M7 to 2018:M6. Then, these volatility series are further used in the multivariate VAR model to analyze the feedback interaction between stock market and macroeconomic risk factors for China and USA. The study also incorporates the impact of Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998 and the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 by using dummy variables in the GARCH model analysis.

Findings

The empirical results of GARCH models indicate volatility persistence in the stock markets and the macroeconomic variables of both countries. The study finds relatively weak and inconsistent unidirectional causality for China mainly running from the stock market to the macroeconomic variables; however, the volatility spillover transmission reciprocates when the impact of Asian financial crisis and Global financial crisis is incorporated. For USA, the contemporaneous relationship between stock market and macroeconomic risk factors is quite strong and bidirectional both at first and second moment level.

Originality/value

This study investigates the interaction between stock market and macroeconomic uncertainty for China and USA. The researchers believe that none of the prior studies has made such rigorous comparison of two of the big and diverse economies (China and USA) which are quite contrasting in terms of political, economic and social background. Therefore, this study also tries to test the presumed conception that macroeconomic uncertainty in China may have different impact on the stock market return and volatility than in USA.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 10 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 May 2021

Syed Mehmood Raza Shah, Qiang Fu, Ghulam Abbas and Muhammad Usman Arshad

Wealth Management Products (WMPs) are the largest and most crucial component of China's Shadow banking, which are off the balance sheet and considered as a substitute for…

Abstract

Purpose

Wealth Management Products (WMPs) are the largest and most crucial component of China's Shadow banking, which are off the balance sheet and considered as a substitute for deposits. Commercial banks in China are involved in the issuance of WMPs mainly to; evade the regulatory restrictions, move non-performing loans away from the balance sheet, chase the profits and take advantage of yield spread (the difference between WMPs yield and deposit rate).

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, the authors investigate what bank related characteristics and needs; influenced and prompted the issuance of WMPs. By using a quarterly panel data from 2010 to 2019, this study performed the fixed effects approach favored by the Hausman specification test, and a feasible generalized least square (FGLS) estimation method is employed to deal with any issues of heteroscedasticity and auto-correlation.

Findings

This study found that there is a positive and significant association between the non-performing loan ratio and the issuance of WMPs. Moreover, profitability and spread were found to play an essential role in the issuance of WMPs. The findings of this study suggest that WMPs are issued for multi-purpose, and off the balance sheet status of these products makes them very lucrative for regulated Chinese commercial banks.

Research limitations/implications

Non-guaranteed WMPs are considered as an item of shadow banking in China, as banks do not consolidate this type of WMPs into their balance sheet; due to that reason, there is no individual bank data available for the amount of WMPs. The authors use the number of WMPs issued by banks as a proxy for the bank's exposure to the WMPs business.

Practical implications

From a regulatory perspective, this study helps regulators to understand the risk associated with the issuance of WMPs; by providing empirical evidence that Chinese banks issue WMPs to hide the actual risk of non-performing loans, and this practice could mislead the regulators to evaluate the bank credit risk and loan quality. This study also identifies that Chinese banks issue WMPs for multi-purpose; this can help potential investors to understand the dynamics of WMPs issuance.

Originality/value

This research is innovative in its orientation because it is designed to investigate the less explored wealth management products (WMPs) issued by Chinese banks. This study's content includes not only innovation but also contributes to the existing literature on the shadow banking sector in terms of regulatory arbitrage. Moreover, the inclusion of FGLS estimation models, ten years of quarterly data, and the top 30 Chinese banks (covers 70% of the total Chinese commercial banking system's assets) make this research more comprehensive and significant.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. 39 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 October 2021

Syed Mehmood Raza Shah, Yan Lu, Qiang Fu, Muhammad Ishfaq and Ghulam Abbas

Shadow banking has been evolving rapidly in China, with banks actively using wealth management products (WMPs) to evade regulatory restrictions. These products are the largest…

Abstract

Purpose

Shadow banking has been evolving rapidly in China, with banks actively using wealth management products (WMPs) to evade regulatory restrictions. These products are the largest constituent of China's shadow banking sector. A large number of these products are off-balance-sheet and considered a substitute for bank deposits. China's banking sector, especially the small and medium-sized banks (SMBs), uses these products to avoid regulatory restrictions and sustainability risk in the deposit market.

Design/methodology/approach

This study empirically examined how banks in China, specifically SMBs, utilize these products on a short and long-run basis to manage and control their deposit levels. This study utilized a quarterly panel dataset from 2010 to 2019 for the top 30 Chinese banks, by first implementing a Panel ARDL-PMG model. For cross-sectional dependence, this study further executed a cross-sectional augmented autoregressive distributive lag model (CS-ARDL).

Findings

Under regulations avoidance theory, the findings revealed that WMPs and deposits have a stable long-run substitute relationship. Furthermore, the WMP–Deposit substitute relationship was only significant and consistent for SMBs, but not for large four banks. The findings further revealed that the WMP–Deposit substitute relationship existed, even after the removal of the deposit rate limit imposed by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to control the deposit rates.

Research limitations/implications

The individual bank-issued WMPs' amount data is not available in any database. Therefore, this study utilized the number of WMPs as a proxy for China's banking sector's exposure to the wealth management business.

Practical implications

This research helps policymakers to understand the Deposit–WMP relationship from the off-balance-sheet perspective. During the various stages of interest rate liberalization, banks were given more control to establish their deposit and loan interest rates. However, the deposit rates are still way below the WMP returns, making WMPs more competitive. This research suggests that policymakers should formulate a more balanced strategy regarding deposit rates and WMPs returns.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the existing literature on China's shadow banking by concentrating on the WMPs. This research represents one of the few studies that analyze regulatory arbitrage in terms of the WMP–Deposit relationship. Moreover, the implementation of CS-ARDL panel data models and multiple data sources makes this study's findings more reliable and significant.

Details

International Journal of Bank Marketing, vol. 40 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-2323

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 May 2024

Namarta Kumari Bajaj, Ghulam Abbas, Suresh Kumar Rajput Oad and Tariq Aziz Siyal

This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on foreign remittances (FRs) for the top remittance-receiving countries.

Abstract

Purpose

This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on foreign remittances (FRs) for the top remittance-receiving countries.

Design/methodology/approach

The sample includes Mexico, France, Egypt, China, the Philippines, India, Vietnam, Ukraine, Germany and Belgium for the annual period of 1998–2022 using the nonlinear panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to determine the asymmetry in the relationship.

Findings

The results suggest that, in the short term, positive GPR shocks have a positive and significant impact on FRs received. On the other hand, the long-run results suggest that adverse GPR shocks negatively affect FRs received in the sampled countries. Additionally, the study confirms the asymmetric impact of GPR on top remittances received in countries.

Research limitations/implications

The policymakers, migrants and recipients should consider the asymmetric nature of GPR while making decisions regarding policies and the transfer of remittances. This information can be used to create more effective policies for controlling and reducing the effects of GPR on overseas remittances, such as assisting migrant workers and developing methods to lessen the volatility of these flows.

Originality/value

Acknowledging the potential fluctuations and uncertainties associated with GPR is crucial to make informed choices regarding remittance-related matters.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 January 2018

Ghulam Abbas, David G. McMillan and Shouyang Wang

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relation between stock market volatility and macroeconomic fundamentals for G-7 countries using monthly data over the period from July…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relation between stock market volatility and macroeconomic fundamentals for G-7 countries using monthly data over the period from July 1985 to June 2015.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical methodology is based on two steps: in the first step, the authors obtain the conditional volatilities of stock market returns and macroeconomic variables through the GARCH family of models. The authors also incorporate the impact of early 2000s dotcom and the global financial crises. In the second step, the authors estimate multivariate vector autoregressive model to analyze the dynamic relation between stock markets return and macroeconomic variables.

Findings

The overall results for G-7 countries indicate a weak volatility transmission from macroeconomic factors to stock market volatility at individual level but the collective impact of volatility transmission is highly significant. Although, the results of block exogeneity indicate a bidirectional causality except UK, but the causal linkage is quite weak from stock market to macroeconomic variables. Moreover, the local financial variables excluding interest rate are closely integrated, and the volatility of industrial production growth and oil price are identified as the most significant macroeconomic factors that could possibly influence the directions of stock markets.

Originality/value

This research establishes the nature of the links between stock market and macroeconomic volatility. Research to date has been unable to satisfactorily establish the empirical nature of such links. The authors believe this paper begins to do this.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 45 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 April 2022

Niaz Hussain Ghumro, Ishfaque Ahmed Soomro and Ghulam Abbas

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of exchange rate and investors' sentiments simultaneously on stock market performance in the United States context. In addition, we…

Abstract

Purpose

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of exchange rate and investors' sentiments simultaneously on stock market performance in the United States context. In addition, we have also considered the potential effect of the global financial crisis of 2008 on this nexus.

Design/methodology/approach

We have employed the NARDL (nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag) model on monthly data ranging from January-1999 to December-2018 to investigate the asymmetric (short- and long-run) effects of exchange rate and investors' sentiments on stock market performance. We have also broken down the data into two segments, pre and post-crisis periods to capture the effect of the global financial crisis of 2008.

Findings

The findings of the study reveal that exchange rate and investors' sentiments simultaneously affect stock market performance and omitting any of these variables can produce misleading results. Results also show that the effect of sentiments is stronger than the exchange rate. There is significant evidence of asymmetric short-run and long-run effects of both explanatory variables. Moreover, we have found different outcomes for pre and post-crisis periods. Specifically, the impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock market has been substantiated in the post-crisis period.

Originality/value

Several studies are available which separately evidence the effects of investors' sentiments and exchange rate on performance of the stock market but they can suffer from the problem of omitted variable bias. This study is conducted to test the said effect simultaneously in a single model. Moreover, this study is considering short-run and long-run asymmetry in analyzing the effects of explanatory variables along with the inclusion of the global financial crisis of 2008.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 13 October 2022

Raheel Nawaz and Khydija Wakil

Abstract

Details

Visual Pollution
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80382-042-2

Article
Publication date: 13 May 2014

Nayyer Abbas Zaidi and Shafaat Ahmed Bazaz

– The purpose of this paper is to present the design of a microgripper system that comprises a dual jaw actuation mechanism with contact sensing.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present the design of a microgripper system that comprises a dual jaw actuation mechanism with contact sensing.

Design/methodology/approach

Interdigitated lateral comb-drive-based electrostatic actuator is used to move the gripper arms. Simultaneous contact sensing of the gripper jaws has been achieved through transverse comb-based capacitive sensor. The fabricated microgripper produces a displacement of 16 μm at gripper jaws for an applied actuation voltage of 45 V.

Findings

It is observed that the microgripper fails to operate for the maximum performance limits (70 μm jaws displacement) and produces uncontrolled force at the tip of the jaws > 45 V.

Originality/value

A novel behavioral model of the microgripper system is proposed using the fabricated dimensions of the system to carry out a detailed analysis to understand the cause of this failure. The failure analysis shows that the microgripper system failed to operate in its designed limits due to the presence of side instability in the designed combs structure. Our proposed failure model helps in redesigning the actuator to ensure its operation above 45 V so that the gripper jaw can be displaced to its maximum limit of 70 μm and also result in the increase of the controlled force from 250 to 303 μN at the microgripper jaws.

Details

Industrial Robot: An International Journal, vol. 41 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0143-991X

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 13 May 2024

Mohamed Ismail Mohamed Riyath, Narayanage Jayantha Dewasiri, Mohamed Abdul Majeed Mohamed Siraju, Athambawa Jahfer and Kiran Sood

Purpose: This study investigates internal/own shock in the domestic market and three external volatility spillovers from India, the UK, and the USA to the Sri Lanka stock market…

Abstract

Purpose: This study investigates internal/own shock in the domestic market and three external volatility spillovers from India, the UK, and the USA to the Sri Lanka stock market.

Need for the Study: The external market’s internal/own shocks and volatility spillovers influence portfolio choices in domestic stock market returns. Hence, it is required to investigate the internal shock in the domestic market and the external volatility spillovers from other countries.

Methodology: This study employs a quantitative method using ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model. All Share Price Index (ASPI) is the proxy for the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) stock return. It uses daily time-series data from 1st April 2010 to 21st June 2023.

Findings: The findings revealed that internal/own and external shocks substantially impact the stock price volatility in CSE. Significant volatility clusters and persistence with extended memory in ASPI confirm internal/own shock in the market. Furthermore, CSE receives significant volatility shock from the USA, confirming external shock. This study’s findings highlight the importance of considering internal and external shocks in portfolio decision-making.

Practical Implications: Understanding the influence of internal shocks helps investors manage their portfolios and adapt to market volatility. Recognising significant volatility spillovers from external markets, especially the USA, informs diversification strategies. From a policy standpoint, the study emphasises the need for robust regulations and risk management measures to address shocks in domestic and global markets. This study adds value to the literature by assessing the sources of volatility shocks in the CSE, employing the ARMA-GARCH, a sophisticated econometrics model, to capture stock returns volatility, enhancing understanding of the CSE’s volatility dynamics.

Details

VUCA and Other Analytics in Business Resilience, Part A
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-902-4

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 January 2015

Waqar Ahmed, Muhammad Shahid Soroya and Ghulam Fareed Malik

The purpose of this paper is to study of services of front desk staff using SERVQUAL aims to measure the perception and expectations of the library users. The librarians, keeping…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study of services of front desk staff using SERVQUAL aims to measure the perception and expectations of the library users. The librarians, keeping in view the expectations will get an idea that how much the services should be improved while the users will have an idea that what they want, and what are they provided with. In additions, the difference between the perception and expectations of the male library users and female library users is explored to give an idea to the librarians that what dimension of the services they need to explore.

Design/methodology/approach

Quantitative research method was used to conduct this study. The SERVQUAL instrument was used to measure the levels of perception and expectation through a structured questionnaire at the five points Likert scale. The tool was used with the permission of the author Berry et al. (1985). All the libraries of affiliated medical college with the University of Health Sciences were the population for this study. Through random sampling technique, 20 questionnaires per medical colleges were filled by the students of medical colleges. In total, 202 questionnaires returned and were analyzed after data entry in Statistical Package for Social Science version 19.

Findings

Mean of the total respondents indicate that the improvement in all the five dimensions of the service quality is required as the expectations found to be higher in all the five dimensions as compared to the perceptions. Perceived values are higher among female library users, so the library front desk staff requires increasing the perceived values of male users through improving their services to male library users. While comparing the expectations between male and female users, the results indicate that male library users want more responsiveness and reliability from the staff.

Research limitations/implications

This study measures the perceptions and expectations of the student library users of the medical college affiliated with University of Health Sciences, Lahore. Only main libraries excluding the small departmental libraries are included in this study. This study can be generalized in other private medical colleges as well as other researchers can study further in their own environment.

Practical implications

The results indicate that the expectations are higher. Keeping in view, the librarians will work to meet the expectations of the users. The expectation of the female users are higher in tangibility and empathy dimensions, while the male users expect more in reliability, responsiveness and assurance dimensions. In short, all the results showed that the expectations were higher than the perceptions. Keeping this study in view, the librarians can improve their weak areas of front desk staff services to meet the expectations of the users.

Originality/value

It is the first study of its type to measure the service quality of front desk staff. The service quality of front desk staff is never been measured in medical colleges using SERVQUAL in Lahore. The results of this study provide the guidelines to satisfy library users. The difference between the perception and expectations provides librarians and library managers with a road map to develop the service quality of front desk staff to meet the expectation level of the user’s for their satisfaction. This study can be generalized to the medical colleges other than Lahore.

Details

Library Management, vol. 36 no. 1/2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0143-5124

Keywords

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