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Risk management involves assessing and dealing with objective risks and therefore risk managers are expected to have reasonably advanced analytical knowledge and skills. However as noted earlier, many, if not most, of the elements within the uncertainty field do not provide much in the way of adequate data or information, and – even when they do – there can be significant problems with data quality. Thus, statistical or actuarial analysis tools are best used thoughtfully and mainly in the context of cases where an organisation has many similar exposures (a fleet of hundreds of vehicles, large numbers of employees) or when external data analysis fits convincingly with the more limited experience of the organisation itself. In any case, the overarching challenge for risk managers is to develop a consistent approach to thinking about all risks, uncertainties, emergent/unknown phenomena, even when they have very different characteristics.

Chapter Eleven adopts an approach that is somewhat different from Chapter One to Chapter Ten. Previously, a general, descriptive overview of the subject is given beforehand, and then a slightly different discussion is offered to provide an alternative commentary. Here, the alternative insights are woven into a discussion of decision-making. After presenting this different approach, the traditional decision-making tools are presented and discussed. Since Chapter Twelve also serves as a summary, a more integrated approach is used here.