Search results

1 – 4 of 4
Article
Publication date: 10 May 2024

Ye Li, Chengyun Wang and Junjuan Liu

In this essay, a new NDAGM(1,N,α) power model is recommended to resolve the hassle of the distinction between old and new information, and the complicated nonlinear traits between…

Abstract

Purpose

In this essay, a new NDAGM(1,N,α) power model is recommended to resolve the hassle of the distinction between old and new information, and the complicated nonlinear traits between sequences in real behavior systems.

Design/methodology/approach

Firstly, the correlation aspect sequence is screened via a grey integrated correlation degree, and the damped cumulative generating operator and power index are introduced to define the new model. Then the non-structural parameters are optimized through the genetic algorithm. Finally, the pattern is utilized for the prediction of China’s natural gas consumption, and in contrast with other models.

Findings

By altering the unknown parameters of the model, theoretical deduction has been carried out on the newly constructed model. It has been discovered that the new model can be interchanged with the traditional grey model, indicating that the model proposed in this article possesses strong compatibility. In the case study, the NDAGM(1,N,α) power model demonstrates superior integrated performance compared to the benchmark models, which indirectly reflects the model’s heightened sensitivity to disparities between new and old information, as well as its ability to handle complex linear issues.

Practical implications

This paper provides a scientifically valid forecast model for predicting natural gas consumption. The forecast results can offer a theoretical foundation for the formulation of national strategies and related policies regarding natural gas import and export.

Originality/value

The primary contribution of this article is the proposition of a grey multivariate prediction model, which accommodates both new and historical information and is applicable to complex nonlinear scenarios. In addition, the predictive performance of the model has been enhanced by employing a genetic algorithm to search for the optimal power exponent.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 May 2024

Ye Li, Hongtao Ren and Junjuan Liu

This study aims to enhance the prediction accuracy of hydroelectricity consumption in China, with a focus on addressing the challenges posed by complex and nonlinear…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to enhance the prediction accuracy of hydroelectricity consumption in China, with a focus on addressing the challenges posed by complex and nonlinear characteristics of the data. A novel grey multivariate prediction model with structural optimization is proposed to overcome the limitations of existing grey forecasting methods.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper innovatively introduces fractional order and nonlinear parameter terms to develop a novel fractional multivariate grey prediction model based on the NSGM(1, N) model. The Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm is then utilized to compute the model’s hyperparameters. Subsequently, the proposed model is applied to forecast China’s hydroelectricity consumption and is compared with other models for analysis.

Findings

Theoretical derivation results demonstrate that the new model has good compatibility. Empirical results indicate that the FMGM(1, N, a) model outperforms other models in predicting the hydroelectricity consumption of China. This demonstrates the model’s effectiveness in handling complex and nonlinear data, emphasizing its practical applicability.

Practical implications

This paper introduces a scientific and efficient method for forecasting hydroelectricity consumption in China, particularly when confronted with complexity and nonlinearity. The predicted results can provide a solid support for China’s hydroelectricity resource development scheduling and planning.

Originality/value

The primary contribution of this paper is to propose a novel fractional multivariate grey prediction model that can handle nonlinear and complex series more effectively.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 July 2020

Yaokuang Li, Junjuan Du and Weizhong Fu

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors influencing quick cash by crowd in agri-food crowdfunding campaigns; this paper utilizes prospect theory to analyze the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors influencing quick cash by crowd in agri-food crowdfunding campaigns; this paper utilizes prospect theory to analyze the value and weighting functions of the crowd's cash.

Design/methodology/approach

Using samples of crowdfunding campaigns launched in the Zhongchou (www.Zhongchou.cn) platform's agriculture and food category, this paper employs a multivariate linear regression model to investigate factors that motivate the crowd to make quick investment decisions.

Findings

The results demonstrate that lowering the investment threshold, improving publicity, and increasing the benefits of a campaign can increase the decision weight assigned to a campaign, thereby motivating the crowd to make quick investment decisions. Improving the product's reputation, enhancing campaign promotion, and diversifying the reward scheme can increase the crowd's expected value of the campaign – another motivation for a quicker cash decision.

Practical implications

This paper can help initiators, platforms and regulators better fulfil their roles in promoting the rapid, healthy development of crowdfunding in the agri-food industry, especially in the context of the Chinese launch of significant initiatives to develop crowdfunding aimed at rural e-commerce and poverty alleviation.

Originality/value

This paper extends the behavioral finance concept of prospect theory to agri-food crowdfunding campaigns and investigates factors that motivate the crowd to make quick investment decisions. Additionally, this paper demonstrates that the backers of crowdfunding are not perfectly rational and can be motivated to invest by increasing mean decision weight and expected value of a campaign.

Details

China Agricultural Economic Review, vol. 12 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-137X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 November 2015

Si-feng Liu, Yingjie Yang, Zhi-geng Fang and Naiming Xie

The purpose of this paper is to present two novel grey cluster evaluation models to solve the difficulty in extending the bounds of each clustering index of grey cluster…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present two novel grey cluster evaluation models to solve the difficulty in extending the bounds of each clustering index of grey cluster evaluation models.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the triangular whitenization weight function corresponding to class 1 is changed to a whitenization weight function of its lower measures, and the triangular whitenization weight function corresponding to class s is changed to a whitenization weight function of its upper measures. The difficulty in extending the bound of each clustering indicator is solved with this improvement.

Findings

The findings of this paper are the novel grey cluster evaluation models based on mixed centre-point triangular whitenization weight functions and the novel grey cluster evaluation models based on mixed end-point triangular whitenization weight functions.

Practical implications

A practical evaluation and decision problem for some projects in a university has been studied using the new triangular whitenization weight function.

Originality/value

Particularly, compared with grey variable weight clustering model and grey fixed weight clustering model, the grey cluster evaluation model using whitenization weight function is more suitable to be used to solve the problem of poor information clustering evaluation. The grey cluster evaluation model using endpoint triangular whitenization weight functions is suitable for the situation that all grey boundary is clear, but the most likely points belonging to each grey class are unknown; the grey cluster evaluation model using centre-point triangular whitenization weight functions is suitable for those problems where it is easier to judge the most likely points belonging to each grey class, but the grey boundary is not clear.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 5 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

1 – 4 of 4