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This paper aims to examine Nigeria’s dynamic output and output volatility connectedness with USA, China and India using quarterly data from 1981Q1 to 2019Q4.

The study adopted the network approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) and used the normalized generalized forecast error variance decomposition from an underlying vector error correction model to build connectedness measures.

The findings show that the global financial crisis (GFC) increased the connectedness index far more than the 2016 Nigeria economic recession. The moderate effect of the 2016 Nigeria economic recession on the connectedness index underscores the fact that Nigeria is a small, open economy with minimal capacity to spread output shock. For both real output and its volatility, the total connectedness index rose smoothly and systematically through time, thereby leaving the economies more connected in the long run.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is among the first to examine Nigeria’s dynamic output and output volatility connectedness with the USA, China and India using new empirical insights from the GFC versus 2016 Nigerian recession. The study, therefore, concludes that the Nigerian economy should be diversified immediately as a hedge against future real output shocks, while the USA, China and India should maintain and sustain their current policy frameworks to remain less vulnerable to real output shocks.

The market-based monetary policy framework has been favoured by Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) economies. Hence, this study aims to investigate the effect of monetary policy channels on the sectoral value added and sustainable economic growth in ECOWAS. Data from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund over 2013–2019 were sourced for thirteen member countries. ECOWAS is found to have very high inflation level, interest and exchange rates.

The study adopted the Driscoll–Kraay fixed-effects ordinary least squares regression (OLS) estimator.

The findings revealed that while the effect of monetary policy channels on the agricultural sector value added is largely heterogenous and significantly in-elastic, the one on the industrial and services sectors are overwhelmingly homogeneous and negative, but insignificant for the services sector. Moreover, the effect of monetary policy channels on sustainable economic growth is also homogeneously asymmetric, with imminent stagflation, while the interactive effects of monetary policy channels are heterogeneous on sustainable economic growth and economic sectors. Therefore, an inflation targeting monetary policy stance is generally recommended with prioritised exchange rate stabilisation amid sufficient fiscal space.

This is amongst the first studies to investigate monetary policy channels, sectoral outputs and sustainable growth in the ECOWAS region with a rigorous analysis and found implications for policy.

This study investigated the asymmetric effects of changes in policy uncertainty on real sector variables in Brazil, China, India and South Africa.

The study used the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) modeling framework.

The results showed that both in the long run and short run, rising uncertainty not only increases consumer prices significantly in these economies, but also impedes aggregate and sectoral output growths, and deters investment, employment and private consumption. Contrary to economic expectation, the results also showed that in the long run, declining uncertainty impedes aggregate and sectoral output growths in these economies, and significantly hinders employment in South Africa and Brazil. This suggests that in the long run, economic agents in these economies somewhat behave as if uncertainty is rising. The authors also found significant asymmetric effects in the response of real sector variables to uncertainty both in the long run and short run, which justifies the choice of NARDL framework for this study.

The sample is limited to Brazil, India, China and South Africa. While Brazil, India and China are three of the most prominent large emerging market economies, South Africa is the largest emerging market economy in Africa.

To lessen the adverse effects of policy uncertainty observed in the results, there is need for sound institutions and policy regimes that can promote predictable policy responses in these economies so that policy neither serves as a source of uncertainty nor as a channel through which the effects of other shocks are transmitted.

Apart from using the NARDL framework to capture the asymmetric effects of policy uncertainty, this study also accounted for the sectoral effects of uncertainty in emerging markets.

The issue of foreign aid has continued to gain renewed economic cum political attention in the early years of the twenty-first century. At a summit, popularly known as the Millennium Summit, which took place in 2000, there was an agreement by the international community concerning some goals known as the Millennium Development Goals which were targeted to be reached by the year 2015 but have now been replaced by the Sustainable Development Goals. Against this background, it becomes pertinent to ascertain the contributions and impact of foreign aid in the form of Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) on capital formation in Nigeria. This is an area of foreign aid studies that has been ignored by many researchers. Most studies are seen delving into analyzing the aid-growth nexus without evaluating the transmission link through which foreign aid transmits to affect economic growth. There is paucity of studies on the aid-capital nexus. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

The empirical method used was autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model.

The empirical results from the ARDL model estimations show that foreign aid, which is proxied by ODA, has a positive and significant impact on capital formation in Nigeria for the years under analysis. The result of the Granger causality test shows that a bi-directional granger causality exists between foreign aid and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF).

Empirical results from the ARDL model estimations show that foreign aid, which is proxied by ODA, has a positive and significant impact on capital formation in Nigeria for the years under analysis. The result of the Granger causality test shows that a bi-directional Granger causality exists between foreign aid and GFCF. It is therefore recommended that government should make serious efforts toward the implementation and effective utilization of foreign aid. Appropriate policy measures that would monitor the maximum and effective utilization of foreign aid are also required.

Rural farmers’ access to farm credit in Nigeria has been very low, which affects farm performance, and credit providers have blamed for the problem in the sector. While this general perception persists the fact may be the case of credit demand, rather than just the risk-averse attitudes of credit providers. The purpose of this paper is to investigate significant factors influencing farmers’ credit demand to ensure efficient credit provision.

The research adopted mixed methods for an in-depth investigation into the problem. There were 216 research participants split into equal halves of men and women from six local government areas of Nasarawa State. Data collection methods employed structured interviews, focus group discussions, close/open-ended and key informant interviews. Analytical tools involved descriptive statistics, the logit and multinomial logit models to determine participants’ socio-economic characteristics, sources of credit, access, factors influencing credit demand generally and from the various sources of credit identified.

Findings reveal only 47.6 per cent of the participants accessed credit, with fewer women accessing than men. The most accessed forms of credit are from the semi-formal sources, with more men accessing from formal sources and more women from non-formal sources. Factors having significant influence on credit demand generally are education, group membership and household size. And from formal, semi-formal and non-formal credit sources are education, information on sources of credit, deposits, household size and marital status; education, deposits, group membership, household size, flock size; and education, group membership, and gender from the non-formal credit providers, respectively.

Due to time constraint, this study data were collected concurrently with both quantitative and qualitative methods and did not allow for the interrogation of findings from one method with the other. In addition, the research categorised the agency of women based on marital status only as single or married and did not interrogate the agency of women further, this may be a limitation as some of the female participants are from polygamous homes.

Unlike the current concentration of Nigerian research of this kind with quantitative methods alone, this research contributes particularly to Nigerian research output and experience by triangulating both quantitative and qualitative methods to explore farmers sources of credit, access and factors determining access to credit in the study area.

The growth of both the informal sector and illicit financial outflows necessitated this study, in order to investigate how countries in Africa respond to these realities in terms of mobilization of domestic resources. These are the main motivation for the current study to the extant literature in conjunction with the adoption of employing second-generation econometric techniques which take into account cross-sectional dependence and country-specific heterogeneity.

This study therefore examined the capacity of Africa to mobilize domestic resources amidst rising illicit financial outflows and informal sector size in selected African countries between 2000 and 2018. Second-generation econometric techniques such as cross-sectional dependence tests, slope homogeneity tests, Westerlund (2007) long-run co-integration tests, Eberhardt and Teal (2010) augmented mean group estimations and Kónya (2006) panel causality testing were employed.

Findings revealed the existence of cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity in the data series. Findings also supported the existence of depressing long-run impacts of IFOs and ISS on domestic savings. Causality test results were not uniform across variables among countries. Policy recommendations favour formalizing the largely informal African economies through budgetary policy adjustments and commitment to building stronger institutions.

The fragility of the African countries economy and its macroeconomic indicators is suggestive for more policy construction.

This economic reality about the nature of the informal sector is one that has negated the traditional view which holds that economic reforms would make the informal sector shrink as it transits to formal sector. Experiences from Latin America and Africa in fact indicate that the informal sector is actually on an expansionary path in the wake of adjustment and policy reforms. It is often called the unobserved, unorganized or unprotected economy. With this sector growing in size, the possibility of a reverse may not be in sight, owing to the increasing poverty levels and unemployment prevalent in most African countries. Uncertain foreign investment and aid inflows coupled with lower export revenues and high levels of indebtedness have created new impetus to examine the capacity of Africa's fiscal policy regime to mobilise domestic resources for the development of the region. Surprisingly, the last decade witnessed continued rise in Africa's illicit financial outflows amidst large informal sector size (ISS).

This paper aims to assess the impact of digital financial innovation on financial system development in Common Market for eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). This paper evaluates the dynamic relationship between digital financial innovation measures and financial system development using time series data from COMESA countries for the period 1997–2019.

A dynamic autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) was adopted and the mean group (MG), pooled mean group (PMG) and dynamic fixed effect (DFE) of the model were estimated to evaluate the short- and long-run impact. In addition, the dynamic generalized method of moments (DGMM) was adopted for a robustness check. The Hausman test results show PMG to be the most consistent and efficient estimator, while the coefficient of lagged dependent variable of different GMM is less than the fixed effect coefficient, and, as such, suggests system GMM is the most suitable estimator. Data for the study were sourced from World Bank Development Indicator (WDI, 2020), World Governance Indicator (WGI, 2020) and World Bank Global Financial Development Database (GFD, 2020).

The result shows that digital financial innovation significantly impacts financial system development in the long run. As such, the evidence revealed that automated teller machines (ATMs), point of sale (POS), mobile payments (MP) and mobile banking are significant and contribute positively to financial system development in the long run, while mobile money (MM) and Internet banking (INB) are insignificant but exhibit positive and inverse relationship with financial development respectively. Further investigation revealed that institutional quality and a stable macroeconomic environment including their interactive term are significantly imperative in predicting financial system development in the COMESA region.

Researchers recommend a cohesive and conscious policy that would checkmate the divergence in the short run and suggest a common regional innovative financial strategy that could be pursued to incentivize technology transfer needed to promote financial system development in the long run. More so, plausible product and process innovations may be adapted to complement innovative institutions in the different components of the COMESA financial system.

Digital financial innovation services if well managed increase the inherent benefits in financial system development.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper presents new background information on digital financial innovation that may stimulate the development of the financial system, particularly in the COMESA region. It also exposes the relevance of digital financial innovation, institutional quality and stable macroeconomic environment as well as their interactive effect on COMESA financial system development.